Why I Never Draft Starting Pitchers Early
By orleanscardinals at 24 July, 2009, 8:53 pm
Right now, my fantasy baseball team is in first place for all five pitching categories. Out of the ten pitchers on they roster today, only three were drafted and that includes only one starting pitcher: Ted Lilly.
I was able to pick up Justin Verlander, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Downs, Huston Street, Michael Wuertz and Dan Meyer via free agency. Verlander and possibly Street should be the only surprises here (luck based off of owners with itchy trigger fingers).
This is why I try never to use early round draft picks for starting pitching.
Inevitably, quality starters will emerge from mid-to-late round draft selections and even free agency. According to Yahoo rankings, 13 of the top 25 starting pitchers in this particular league could have been drafted in the 10th round or later.
Patient managers should also be able to grab waiver wire or free agent gems at some point during the season. It’s possible to catch a pitcher in a hot streak or at least in line for favorable matchups. Pay attention to ball parks, split statistics and historic trends.
I find the most likely times to get good starters are in early May, when managers cut bait with guys who could turn out to be duds and mid-June and late August, when Triple-A prospects often get called up.
And if this is not enough reason, consider this: of the 19 starting pitchers who began the season in the top 100, only five are still ranked there. More importantly, only Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Dan Haren justify being selected in the fifth round or earlier (out of about eight or nine possible selections).
If the season were to end today, guys like Zack Greinke, Javier Vázquez and Chris Carpenter would certainly merit early round consideration and none of these guys where drafted earlier than round nine or ten this year.
Just remember that next year, it will be certain that someone like Matsuzaka, Gallardo or maybe Garza will emerge as a top starter and those guys will get picked somewhere in the middle to end of next season’s draft.
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