Fantasy Baseball Case Study: Streaming Starting Pitching
By orleanscardinals at 28 June, 2008, 2:19 pm
Last week I wrote about how to overcome fantasy baseball pitching injuries. One of the recommendations was to stream in starting pitchers in order to take advantage of the right match-ups.
Here is a look at 3 starting pitchers (and the results) I picked up over the course of last week, based on match-ups and statistics, to compensate for a weak pitching roster.
Match-up #1: Kevin Slowey, Minnesota at San Diego
With limited career experience, there’s risk in taking a pitcher who is gone largely un-hyped by the experts. But a 39:9 K/BB ratio and the woeful San Diego offense had me interested. The fact that the game was being played in San Diego, widely known as a pitchers’ park, sealed the deal.
Slowey easily pitched well enough to win, but Minnesota couldn’t muster enough offense to get it for him. I’m not sold on Slowey or the Twins long-term, but I would consider adding him again if the match-up was comparable.
Final Pitching Line: 6 IP, 4 Hits, No Runs or Walks, 7 K’s
Match-up #2: Tim Wakefield, Arizona at Boston
Boston pitchers are a good bet for wins, particularly in Boston (where the Red Sox are 31-10) and playing the Diamondbacks (losers of 4 of the last 5 and scoring more than 5 runs only twice in June).
Wakefield had been pitching pretty well of late although he’s known to get knocked around just when you would think he’s a safe bet. Fortunately for me, this time he ended up pitching a gem.
Final Pitching Line: Win, 7 IP, 2 Hits, 1 Walk, No Runs, 6 K’s
Match-up #3: Scott Baker, Minnesota at San Diego
It was somewhat of a coin toss between Scott Baker and San Diego Pitcher Josh Banks. Both pitchers had fairly similar statistics - low walk rates, solid WHIP - and the game was again played in San Diego.
The only reason I chose Baker was because I had a bit more experience to go on and Baker had a better K:BB ratio. Looking back, Baker’s line was decent but not spectacular and probably would not have been worth it without getting the win.
Final Pitching Line: Win, 6 IP, 6 Hits, 2 Walks, 3 Runs and 3’s
All in all, I was able to gain 2 Wins and 16 K’s in 19 IP, with only 4 walks as 12 Hits (1.00 WHIP). Of all the pitchers listed, the only one that really intrigues me going forward would be Slowey, but all three are available right now as free agents in all of the leagues I play in.
In the end, streaming starting pitching really is only an option when a regular roster is not strong enough to compete day-to-day (because of injuries or lack of talent). Analysis of historical performance and situational statistics can allow the fantasy baseball manager to make educated decisions on starting certain pitchers who may not be on the everyday fantasy baseball roster but can contribute to your season when the timing is right.
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