From 2008 Cy Young Winner to Early Round Draft Pick in 2009?

The news that Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee won the Cy Young awards for the AL and NL respectively brings a nice finish for fantasy baseball managers lucky enough to draft either of these players.

(Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press)

In Yahoo fantasy baseball drafts, Lincecum probably went in rounds 8 or 9 and Lee may have gone somewhere around the 15th round.  In one of my leagues, Lee wasn’t even drafted.

So does that mean fantasy baseball managers should push these guys up to elite status in their 2009 fantasy baseball draft?  Not so fast.  Let’s take a look at some of the historical data supporting this argument.

Cy Young History
First of all, here’s a look at the last 5 years worth of Cy Young winners (and what they did the following year).

2007

• AL – CC Sabathia
• NL – Jake Peavy
  In 2008, both Peavy and Sabathia were well worth an earlier round draft pick.  Sabathia’s absolute dominance in Milwaukee arguably made him one of the best fantasy baseball pitchers (selected in early rounds) of the season.

2006

• AL – Bartolo Colon
• NL – Chris Carpenter
  Colon absolutely bombed in 2007, posting an ERA over 6.00 and WHIP over 1.60 and Carpenter was injured in the first start of the season, never to return.

2005

• AL – Johan Santana
• NL – Eric Gagne
  Even an off year with the Mets in 2008 will barely damage Santana’s draft value in 09, but Gagne’s 2005 marked the last season a mid-round draft pick made sense.

2004

• AL – Barry Zito
• NL – Randy Johnson
  Both Zito and Johnson pitched pretty well in 2005, but were certainly not the same elite starting pitchers that they were in 2004.

2003

• AL – Roger Clemens
• NL – Randy Johnson
  Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson’s 2003 Cy Young award winning seasons were really backed up by comparable, if not better seasons in 2004 (as evidenced by Johnson’s 2004 Cy Young with Clemens as a clear competitor after moving to Houston).

So base on the past 5 season award winners, there is a 50/50 chance that this year’s Cy Young winners will deserve the early round draft choice they probably will claim.

A 50% chance is not enough for me to move either of these guys up a few rounds in my 2009 drafts.

Looking Deeper into Each Pitcher
If it’s not Cy Young award history that sways you, then it will be the circumstances you think each pitcher will be in in 2009.  Here’s a preliminary look.

Cliff Lee
The fact that Cliff Lee pitched so well on such a disappointing Indians team was definitely a surprise.  The reality is that just one year before, Lee absolutely blew up for the Indians and while his 2005 campaign was pretty decent, he’s never been as successful as he was in 2008.  The real question is, “has Lee corrected the issues that have hurt him in the past?”

ESPN writer Eric Karabell is skeptical and I tend to agree.  Karabell writes…

How does the top pitcher in the American League in 2008 fall outside the top 10 for mixed leagues in 2009? Easily, that’s how. Track record and strikeouts matter, too, and Lee remains someone who has had one great season only.

No matter how Lee performs going forward, he really is not a strikeout pitcher.  So that means that if he  needs to get wins with a low ERA and razor-sharp control, in order to for fantasy team to compete in 3 of the 5 pitching categories in a 5×5 rotisserie league.

What’s worse is that in 2009, Lee’s certainly going to be counted on as a #1 or 2 pitcher for the Indians.  That means he’ll also be facing the competitions’ best starters as well.

Tim Lincecum
No one questioned whether Lincecum was talented, but very few (if any) projected he would progress to a Cy Young winner in 2008.

Tim Lincecum will certainly get a fantasy baseball team strikeouts but here are the two major unknowns to consider:

• How will Lincecum hold up in 2009?  Some compare Lincecum to a young Pedro Martinez.  There’s no indication that Lincecum’s body cannot hold up to the 200+ IP season in 2009, but there will always be the whispers.
• The San Francisco Giants will probably still not be that good.  One of the main reasons Lincecum was not a higher round pick in 2008 was that he basically has to dominate every game pitched to get wins.  In 9 of his 18 wins, the Giants scored 4 or less runs.

Conclusions
All in all, if I had to draft one of these guys early in my 2009 fantasy baseball leagues, Lincecum would be the clear choice.  He is a strikeout pitcher, former top round draft pick (in real MLB drafts) and has demonstrated at least a limited history of success.  Cliff Lee would not be a starting pitcher I would specifically target in the 2009 draft.  Lee’s lack of sustained success and the fact that he is not a high strikeout pitcher are the main reasons for this decision.

That being said, it’s unlikely that either of these pitchers will be on my short list for fantasy pitching.  My suspicion is that in nearly every league, a fantasy manager will “overpay”, at east for Lincecum, based on the fantasy baseball experts recommended draft projections.   I’ll be waiting for either if they come at a reasonable discount, but am pretty sure there will still be bargains in the mid rounds of 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.